În 1997, William Strauss și Neil Howe au publicat The Fourth Turning, o analiză istorică bazată pe tipare generaționale, nu pe profeții. Concluzia lor este simplă și incomodă: societățile moderne evoluează în cicluri de aproximativ 80 de ani, fiecare împărțit în patru etape distincte de câte 20 de ani. După o mare criză urmează o perioadă de stabilitate și ordine. Apoi vine faza de contestare și căutare de sens. După aceea, fragmentarea și pierderea încrederii. Iar în final, inevitabil, apare Cr
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